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Events Collaborations |
Capturing Uncertainty in Biofuels for
Transportation. Resolving Environmental Performance and Enabling Improved Use Reference:
MIT/SET/0014/2009 Project Objectives This project addresses the
challenge of developing a methodology for the extended LCA of biofuels
systems’ sustainability. The R&D work will provide: 1) a quantitative assessment of the nature
and magnitude of quality and environmental impact uncertainty of feedstock’s
for transportation biofuels; 2) an analytical characterization of the
potential for uncertainty-aware planning models to appropriately manage
uncertainty; 3) a framework to combine and make
trade-offs between these tools in the context of industry-specific case
studies. The explicit incorporation of quality uncertainty in bio-derived feedstock
will enhance the ability to quantify the environmental performance of these
fuels. The project will provide
critical information for the biofuel industry in sourcing particular
feedstock’s both domestically and internationally, optimizing fuel outputs by
managing the quality uncertainty of feedstock’s, and assessing their
environmental impact. A “well-to-tank” modeling of the biofuels will be
adopted. The project focuses on systems producing a major crop traded on the
global market, and explores the use of next generation biofuels and
feedstock’s that could be sourced domestically, which could provide a
business opportunity for Portuguese fuel companies. The project will: •
Characterize the uncertainty in selected
bio-derived fuel feedstock sources, including their quality and environmental
performance. Uncertainty in quality deals with determining statistical
quality distributions for incoming feedstock’s. Towards environmental impact
uncertainty, this work will look at several uncertainties including indirect
land use changes. •
Assess the environmental value of biofuel
alternatives based on the complementary use of MCDA and LCA. •
Develop decision-support tools considering
uncertainty of the quality performance function (that maps feedstock
characteristics to final fuel properties) into blending decisions using
stochastic optimization, including as inputs residual sources and
conventional feedstock’s. •
Combine LCA and blending algorithms using MCDA
towards novel engineering systems methodologies through case studies that
compare fuels for transportation on metrics of environmental performance. Research Team Principal
Investigator - Fausto Miguel Seixas Cereja
Freire Members of the research team - Ariovaldo
Lopes de Carvalho -
Carla Margarida Saraiva de Oliveira Henriques - Carlos Alberto Henggeler de Carvalho
Antunes - Érica Geraldes Castanheira - Jeremy E. Gregory - João Manuel Nogueira Malça de Matos
Ferreira - Jorge Campos da Silva André - Luís Manuel Ventura Serrano - Luís Miguel Cândido Dias - Randolph R. Kirchain Selected Publications Chapters in books Caldeira, C., Gülsen, E.,
Olivetti, E. A., Kirchain, R., Dias, L., Freire, F. (2014). “A Multiobjective
model for biodiesel blends minimizing cost and Greenhouse Gas emissions”.
Computational Science and Its Applications. Lecture Notes in Computer
Science. Vol. 8581, pp 653-666. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-09150-1_48
Malça, J.; Freire F. (2011). “Uncertainty Analysis of
the Life-cycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Energy Renewability of
Biofuels". In: Environmental Impact of Biofuels, Marco Aurélio dos
Santos Bernardes ed., chapter 10, 26 pp., InTech Publishers, Vienna. ISBN:
978-953-307-178-7. Malça J, Freire F (2011).
“Ethanol from wheat”. Encyclopedia of Energy, New York: Salem Press. Malça J, Freire F (2011).
“Ethanol from sugar beet”. Encyclopedia of Energy, New York: Salem Press. Malça J, Freire F (2011). “Vegetable oil fuel”. Encyclopedia of Energy,
New York: Salem Press. Papers in international periodic with scientific
refereeing Castanheira, É.G., Acevedo, H., Freire, F. (2014).
Greenhouse
gas intensity of palm oil produced in Colombia addressing alternative land
use change and fertilization scenarios. Applied
energy 114, 958-967. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2013.09.010
Castanheira, É.G., Grisoli, R., Freire, F., Coelho
S. (2014). Environmental sustainability of biodiesel in Brazil. Energy Policy 65, 680–691. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2013.09.062
Castanheira, É.G., Freire, F. (2013). Greenhouse gas assessment
of soybean: implications of land use change and different cultivation
systems. Journal of Cleaner Production 54, 49-60. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2013.05.026 Dias, L.C., Domingues, A.R. (2014). On multi-criteria
sustainability assessment: spider-gram surface and dependence biases. Applied
Energy 113, 159–163. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2013.07.024 Dias, L.C., C.H. Antunes,
D. Rios Insua (2012). Dealing with uncertainty in Decision Support Systems:
Recent trends (2000-2011). International Journal of Intelligent Decision
Technologies 6 (4), 245-264. http://dx.doi.org/10.3233/IDT-2012-0141 Dias, L.C., Sarabando, P. (2012). A note on a group
preference axiomatization with cardinal utility. Decision Analysis, 9 (3), 231-237. http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/deca.1120.0244 Garcia, R., Marques, P., Freire, F. (2014). Life-cycle assessment of
electricity in Portugal. Journal of Applied Energy, 134, pp. 563-572. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2014.08.067 Gouveia, M.C., Dias, L.C., Antunes, C.H. (2013). Super-efficiency and
stability intervals in additive DEA. Journal of the Operational Research
Society 64(1), 86–96. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/jors.2012.19 Gulşen, E., Olivetti,
E., Freire, F., Dias, L., Kirchain, R. (2014). Impact of feedstock
diversification on the cost-effectiveness of biodiesel. Applied Energy 126,
281-296. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2014.03.063 Gülşen, E., Olivetti,
E., Malça, J., Castanheira, É.G., Freire, F., Dias, L., Kirchain, R. (2014).
Impact of Policy on Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Economics of Biodiesel
Production. Environmental Science & Technology 48 (13), 7642–7650. http://dx.doi.org/10.1021/es405410u Malça, J., Coelho, A.,
Freire, F. (2014). Environmental Life-Cycle Assessment of rapeseed-based
biodiesel: alternative cultivation systems and locations. Applied Energy 114,
837-844. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2013.06.048 Malça, J., Freire, F.
(2012). Addressing land use change and uncertainty in the life-cycle
assessment of wheat-based bioethanol. Energy, the International Journal 45
(1), 519-527. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2012.02.070 Malça, J.; Freire, F.
(2011). Life-cycle studies of biodiesel in Europe: A review addressing the
variability of results and modeling issues. Renewable and Sustainable Energy
Reviews 15 (1), 338–351. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2010.09.013 Serrano, L., Carreira, V., Câmara, R., Gameiro da
Silva, M. (2012). On-road performance comparison of two identical cars consuming
petrodiesel and biodiesel. Fuel
Processing Technology 103, 125–133. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.fuproc.2011.12.012
Serrano, L.M.V., Câmara, R.M.O., Carreira, V.J.R.,
Gameiro da Silva, M.C. (2012). Performance study about biodiesel impact on buses
engines using dynamometer tests and fleet consumption data. Energy Conversion
and Management 60, 2–9. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enconman.2011.11.029 |
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