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Capturing Uncertainty in Biofuels for Transportation. Resolving Environmental Performance and Enabling Improved Use

Reference: MIT/SET/0014/2009

 

Project Objectives

This project addresses the challenge of developing a methodology for the extended LCA of biofuels systems’ sustainability. The R&D work will provide:

 1) a quantitative assessment of the nature and magnitude of quality and environmental impact uncertainty of feedstock’s for transportation biofuels;

 2) an analytical characterization of the potential for uncertainty-aware planning models to appropriately manage uncertainty;

 3) a framework to combine and make trade-offs between these tools in the context of industry-specific case studies. The explicit incorporation of quality uncertainty in bio-derived feedstock will enhance the ability to quantify the environmental performance of these fuels.

The project will provide critical information for the biofuel industry in sourcing particular feedstock’s both domestically and internationally, optimizing fuel outputs by managing the quality uncertainty of feedstock’s, and assessing their environmental impact. A “well-to-tank” modeling of the biofuels will be adopted. The project focuses on systems producing a major crop traded on the global market, and explores the use of next generation biofuels and feedstock’s that could be sourced domestically, which could provide a business opportunity for Portuguese fuel companies. The project will:

       Characterize the uncertainty in selected bio-derived fuel feedstock sources, including their quality and environmental performance. Uncertainty in quality deals with determining statistical quality distributions for incoming feedstock’s. Towards environmental impact uncertainty, this work will look at several uncertainties including indirect land use changes.

       Assess the environmental value of biofuel alternatives based on the complementary use of MCDA and LCA.

       Develop decision-support tools considering uncertainty of the quality performance function (that maps feedstock characteristics to final fuel properties) into blending decisions using stochastic optimization, including as inputs residual sources and conventional feedstock’s.

       Combine LCA and blending algorithms using MCDA towards novel engineering systems methodologies through case studies that compare fuels for transportation on metrics of environmental performance.           

 

Research Team

           

Principal Investigator

                 - Fausto Miguel Seixas Cereja Freire

            Members of the research team

     - Ariovaldo Lopes de Carvalho

     - Carla Margarida Saraiva de Oliveira Henriques

     - Carlos Alberto Henggeler de Carvalho Antunes

     - Érica Geraldes Castanheira

     - Jeremy E. Gregory

     - João Manuel Nogueira Malça de Matos Ferreira

     - Jorge Campos da Silva André

     - Luís Manuel Ventura Serrano

     - Luís Miguel Cândido Dias

     - Randolph R. Kirchain            

Selected Publications

 

Papers in international periodic with scientific refereeing

2011    

Malça, J.; Freire, F. (2011). "Life-cycle studies of biodiesel in Europe: A review addressing the variability of results and modeling issues". Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Vol. 15, nº1, 338–351. DOI:10.1016/j.rser.2010.09.013

Batterman, S.; Martins, A.; Antunes, C.; Freire, F.; Gameiro, M. (2011)."Development and Application of Competencies for Graduate Programs in Energy and Sustainability". (Accepted for publication in the Journal of Professional Issues in Engineering Education and Practice) http://dx.doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)EI.1943-5541.0000069

 

Papers in conference proceedings

2011

Castanheira É.G.; Freire F.;(2011). “Environmental performance of palm oil biodiesel in a life-cycle perspective". In: 2011 IEEE International Symposium on Sustainable Systems and Technology. Chicago, Illinois. Proceedings of the International Symposium on Sustainable Systems and Technology 2011. (accepted for publication)

Castanheira É.G.;Freire F.;(2011). “Life cycle assessment of palm oil biodiesel addressing land use change.". In: ECOS2011, The 24 th International Conference on Efficiency, Cost, Optimization, Simulation and Environmental Impact of Energy Systems. NoviSad. ECOS Conference proceedings. (Accepted for publication)

Castanheira É.G.;Freire F.;(2011). “LC GHG Assessment of soybeans.". In: LCM 2011 - Towards Life Cycle Sustainability Management. Berlin. ECOS2011. Proceedings of LCM 2011 - Towards Life Cycle Sustainability Management. (accepted for publication)

Garcia, R.; Freire F.;(2011). “Avaliação comparativa de instrumentos de gestão ambiental aplicados a painéis de madeira.". In: 1º Congresso IBERO-LATINOAMERICANO da madeira na construção. Coimbra. Proceedings do 1º congresso IBERO-LATINOAMERICANO da madeira na construção. (accepted for publication)

Garcia, R.; Freire F.;(2011). “Modelação energética e ambiental do ciclo de vida de painéis aglomerados de partículas.". In: 1º Congresso IBERO-LATINOAMERICANO da madeira na construção. Coimbra. Proceedings do 1º congresso IBERO-LATINOAMERICANO da madeira na construção. (accepted for publication)

Malça, J.; Freire F.;(2011). “GHG savings and carbon payback time of RO displacing FD in Europe.". In: IEEE International Symposium on Sustainable Systems and Technology. Chicago, Illinois. Proceedings of the International Symposium on Sustainable Systems and Technology 2011. (accepted for publication)

Malça, J.; Freire F.;(2011). “Uncertainty analysis in life cycle GHG emissions and energy efficiency of bioethanol replacing gasoline.". I In: ECOS2011, the 24th International Conference on Efficiency, Cost, Optimization, Simulation and Environmental Impact of Energy Systems. NoviSad. ECOS Conference proceedings. (accepted for publication)